AGP Executive Report

Romania–Moldova Connectivity: Moldova and Romania signed an updated framework to expand cooperation on strategic infrastructure, with the Ungheni road bridge over the Prut highlighted as a key project and a way to unlock further investment and EU funding. Black Sea Security: Bulgaria, Romania and Türkiye expanded the Black Sea mine countermeasures mission, adding surveillance and a new focus on protecting critical underwater infrastructure tied to national security and economic interests. Defense Procurement: Israel’s Rafael secured a major €2.3bn Spyder air-defense deal with Romania’s Ministry of National Defence, including training and technical support, as Bucharest ramps up procurement after 2022. Energy Projects: Romania’s energy partner Moldova said the Vulcănești–Chișinău power line works are finished, with commercial operation expected in late August after testing at Chișinău substation. EU Trade Rules: From July 1, the EU starts charging €3 on small parcels under €150, a move aimed at curbing low-value imports and reshaping costs for e-commerce and logistics. Market Outlook (Region): wiiw raised its growth outlook for Bulgaria and expects resilience across Central, Eastern and Southeast Europe despite higher energy-driven inflation risks.

Heat Adaptation in Bucharest: The city is upgrading public transport shelters with UV protection, better thermal materials and shading, while also launching a major climate-shelter network to cut heat risk for thousands of daily passengers. Real Estate Prices: New apartment prices rose fastest in Bucharest (+21% y/y), while existing-home prices jumped most in Timișoara (+11%); the Imobiliare.ro index points to uneven momentum across major cities. Energy Storage Push: Electrica secured grid connection permits for 17 battery energy storage projects totaling ~700 MWh, aiming for commissioning by end-2027. Solar Buildout: OMV Petrom and CE Oltenia began installing panels for four solar parks (total ~550 MW), with operations expected in 2027. Business & Investment Climate: Romania slipped to 61st in the IMD 2026 competitiveness ranking and rating agencies are said to be focusing more on politics, while investor trust remains weak. Corporate Moves: Orange Romania plans EUR 237m in 2026 for network expansion, fiber and cybersecurity; Qualysoft Romania reported a 54% turnover jump in 2025. Policy & Parliament: The Chamber of Deputies failed to adopt SAFE program Order 38/2026, delaying defense-related investment framework changes.

Romanian Economy Watch: Consulting firm Frames says Romania is in a “forced correction” as the fiscal deficit is cut by half, public spending falls in real terms for the first time in years, and public wages decline versus private. Air Defence Deal: Romania signed the first follow-on contract with Rafael for SHORAD–VSHORAD systems worth 3.049 bn RON (ex-VAT), covering integrated and standalone batteries plus training and simulation, with deliveries starting within three years. Energy & Renewables: OMV Petrom and CE Oltenia received the first 100 MW batch of solar panels for four parks (about 550 MW total), targeting operation in 2027; investment tops €400m, mostly via the Modernisation Fund. Digital Identity & Security: Romania will use Germany’s solution for its EU Digital Identity Wallet, while a new deepfake detection product (Scam.ai/Qualcomm) pushes on-device verification for video calls. Business Expansion: DIGMATIX acquired Czech CRM firm LLP CRM and Romania’s Microsoft partner ELIAN SOLUTIONS to expand Dynamics 365 and CRM services across Central Europe. Payments Tech: African central banks back interoperable payment systems to cut cross-border costs and speed trade, with discussions held in Cluj-Napoca. Tourism Policy: Bulgaria’s tourism reforms will be shaped with industry experts, aiming to modernize products and promotion.

Oracle job cuts in Romania: Reports say Oracle’s Romania unit (about 4,000 staff) is starting collective redundancy consultations, with some employees only learning their status after batch email notices; affected workers are reportedly offered about one month’s pay per year worked plus extra months and paid garden leave, while the company hasn’t publicly confirmed the terms. EU crypto rules hit home: With MiCA’s July 1 deadline, only 244 crypto-asset service providers have full authorisation; Germany and France lead, while Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal and Romania have issued none—pushing firms to restrict EU access and market to users migrating to compliant platforms. Transport & infrastructure: Romania won seven of nine motorway sections financed under the EU SAFE programme, while CFR Călători completed modernization of 42 passenger rail cars worth over EUR 67m under the PNRR. Tourism & consumer nerves: Foreign visitors spent about EUR 294m in Romania in Q1 2026, with business travellers driving over half; at the same time, a survey finds many Romanians feel unprepared for financial shocks and delay emergency planning. Macroeconomy & ratings: Moody’s warns Romania’s political uncertainty could weigh on fiscal consolidation; economists call for a pact to curb inflation and the deficit. Defense & industry: Rafael signed a roughly EUR 2.3bn deal to supply Romania with SPYDER air defense systems, and ABB is set to acquire Høglund to expand marine automation, including operations in Romania.

Romania’s Defence Procurement: Romania will acquire Rafael’s SPYDER air defence systems in a deal worth over €2bn, with launchers, interceptors, radars, training and logistics plus industrial cooperation and local production via CN Romtehnica. Digital Identity & Wallets: Romania chose the German model for the EU’s EUDI Wallet, aiming to reuse open-source components, cut duplication and open the market to certified private wallet providers. Media Freedom Watch: The EU’s Media Pluralism Monitor 2026 flags worsening journalist working conditions, with Romania among the worst performers on protection indicators. Crypto Regulation Shift: Coinbase, Kraken and OKX are offering transfer bonuses and prizes to attract EU users affected by MiCA restrictions, as unlicensed platforms scale back. Heatwave Risk for Business: A Europe-wide heatwave is intensifying, with Romania and the region facing dangerous temperatures that can hit productivity and energy demand. World Cup Piracy Crackdown: The US DOJ seized nearly 400 domains used for illegal FIFA World Cup streaming, including disruptions in Romania. Corporate Restructuring: British American Tobacco plans AI-driven job cuts and outsourcing under its Fit2Win programme, targeting thousands of roles. Political Uncertainty: Romania’s parties have one day left to form a majority before the July 1 parliamentary recess, with competing prime-minister options and no clear path yet.

Food Safety & Retail: Morrisons and other supermarkets issued urgent recalls after some snack packs were flagged for serious safety issues, including one product that may contain “pieces of metal,” urging shoppers not to eat and to check official notices. Tobacco Restructuring: British American Tobacco plans to cut 5,500 jobs and outsource 3,500 more by year-end as part of its “Fit2Win” cost-saving push, aiming for £600m annual savings by 2028 and shifting more resources toward smoke-free nicotine. Capital Markets: Digi confirmed it will pursue a stock market debut in Spain, targeting about EUR 150m via a share sale and listing across major Spanish exchanges, with Global Portfolio Investments backing the deal. Banking & Consumer Finance: RoCapital IFN launches the Wonga digital lending brand in Romania, bringing a Poland-developed consumer credit model to the local market. Public Finance & Euro Path: The ECB says Romania has made only limited progress toward adopting the euro, citing high inflation, a still-large deficit, and remaining legal gaps. Pensions & Markets: Voluntary pension assets in Romania reached 7.86bn lei at end-March, while the capital market saw a burst of activity in Q1 2026. Business & Tech: OLX Group reported strong FY results, with AI now positioned as its “operating system,” and ABB agreed to buy Høglund to expand marine automation, including operations in Romania.

Romanian politics: Parliament heads into recess with Romania still without a fully empowered government, as President Nicușor Dan urges pro-European parties to break the PSD–PNL deadlock by Tuesday; PSD pushes for a PSD-led cabinet under Sorin Grindeanu, PNL counters with a minority formula (PNL–USR–UDMR) with Siegfried Mureșan PM, while AUR demands early elections. Defense & industry: Rafael Advanced Defense Systems signed with Romania’s Ministry of National Defense for the Spyder air defense system (VSHORAD–SHORAD), lifting the framework deal to over €2bn, with Spyder selected in June 2025 for about €1.9bn. Tech & jobs: Oracle Romania has started another restructuring round, with layoffs of about 500 employees reported after a prior cut of roughly 400 in late 2025. EU security & piracy: The US DOJ seized nearly 400 domains used to illegally stream the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with takedowns linked to servers in Peru and Bulgaria and disruptions also in Romania. Climate pressure: A severe Europe heatwave is driving rising deaths and straining power systems; Romania is among countries issuing top-level heat alerts. Water & inequality: Data highlights Romania’s lower access to safely managed drinking water and a relatively high income-inequality gap (Gini ~29.8%), while global shipping warns of a growing workforce shortage.

Romania–Moldova Business Ties: An exhibition “Republic of Moldova Presents” opened in Brașov, with over 50 Moldovan companies showcasing food, wine, cosmetics, crafts and more, as local chambers push closer trade links. Tech & Jobs: Oracle Romania has started another restructuring round, with layoffs of about 500 employees reported after a previous cut of roughly 400 in late 2025, as AI-driven reorganization continues across the group. Public Finance & Protest: A protest is planned outside Romania’s parliament by the “Democrația Acasă” movement, demanding the suspension of a VAT increase on essential goods and services. Energy & Industry: ENEVO and Kraftfeld signed an EPC contract for a 220 MWh BESS project in Drăgănești-Olt, adding to Romania’s storage pipeline. Regional Economy & Trade: Maspex bought an 80% stake in Ukraine’s Karpatski Mineralni Vody, aiming to expand production and distribution across Central and Eastern Europe, including Romania. Climate Pressure: Europe’s heatwave is intensifying, with Romania among countries issuing top-level heat alerts, raising risks for health, travel and power demand. Digital Enforcement: The US DOJ seized nearly 400 domains used for illegal FIFA World Cup streaming, with disruptions reported also in Romania.

Romania–Moldova Business Ties: A new trade and culture exhibition, “Republic of Moldova Presents,” opened in Brașov, with 50+ Moldovan companies showcasing food, drinks, cosmetics and crafts, as local business leaders push closer economic links. Tech & Jobs: Oracle Romania has started another restructuring round, with plans to cut roughly 500 roles, as AI-driven workforce reductions continue across the group. Tax Protest Watch: The “Democrația Acasă” movement is calling a Sunday protest outside Parliament, demanding an immediate suspension of a VAT increase on essential goods and services. EU/Politics: Romania’s government formation talks hit a deadlock after Parliament rejected a proposed cabinet, leaving the country again searching for a prime minister with full powers. Cross-border Enforcement: The US DOJ seized nearly 400 domains used for illegal FIFA World Cup streaming, with enforcement actions also reported in Romania and other countries. Logistics & Expansion: Rohlig SUUS Logistics announced further CEECA expansion, including Romania, supported by Polish development institutions. M&A in Food & Drinks: Maspex bought an 80% stake in Ukraine’s Karpatski Mineralni Vody, aiming to produce Tymbark and Tarczyn products in Ukraine from August.

Black Sea & Defence: Romania received its first new warship in 30 years: the Turkish-built corvette ROS Contraamiral August Roman, delivered under a €223m government-to-government deal, with a follow-on €42m package planned for full operational capability. EU State Aid & Finance: The European Commission approved Romania’s measures for the national Investment and Development Bank (BID), including a €1bn capital increase partly funded via the RRF and an extended state guarantee to back long-term projects and SMEs. Energy Storage Deal: ENEVO and Kraftfeld signed an EPC contract for a 110 MW / 220 MWh BESS in Draganesti-Olt, with construction starting Q3 2026 and commercial operation expected in early 2027. Energy Market Integration (Moldova): Moldova says 60% of actions for EU energy market integration are already implemented, with another 25% in progress. Corporate Restructuring: Oracle began a second round of layoffs in Romania, notifying about 500 employees as AI-driven restructuring continues. Business Expansion (Regional): Polish food group Maspex agreed to buy an 80% stake in Ukraine’s Karpatski Mineralni Vody, aiming to start production in Lviv in August. World Cup Piracy Crackdown: US authorities seized nearly 400 domains used to illegally stream FIFA World Cup matches, with enforcement actions including Romania. Politics: Talks to form a new Romanian government ended without consensus, with President Nicuşor Dan calling leaders back after parliament rejected a PM-designate plan.

EU State Aid: The European Commission approved Romania’s EUR 1 bln capital increase for the Investment and Development Bank (BID), partly funded via the Recovery and Resilience Facility, plus a state guarantee extension to end-2032 to help firms and public projects access long-term financing. Banking & Competition: Romania’s bankers’ association FinBan says the Competition Council’s ROBOR-related fine doesn’t automatically mean loan clients are entitled to compensation, arguing that individual damage and causality still must be proven. Energy Infrastructure (Moldova-Romania): Moldova signed the contract for the 400 kV Balti–Suceava power line linking to Romania and the EU, while also securing grant support for the Phase II interconnection project. Grid & Power Market: Moldova reports over 60% of actions needed for integration into the European energy market are already implemented, with another 25% underway. Renewables & Storage (Romania): ENEVO and Kraftfeld signed an EPC contract for a 110 MW / 220 MWh BESS in Draganesti-Olt, targeting construction in Q3 2026 and early-2027 commissioning. Corporate Moves (Maritime Tech): ABB agreed to acquire Norway’s Høglund to expand marine automation, with closure expected in Q3 2026. Defense & Procurement: Romania took delivery of a Turkish-built corvette, with a follow-on package planned for full operational capability in 2026. Business/Markets (Romania-linked): EIB says Romania is among CESEE markets with high bank expansion potential, while credit demand remains robust. Tech & Policy: Former PM Petre Roman renewed calls for a global AI treaty to manage risks to democracy and security.

Macroeconomic Watch: Romania’s public deficit shrank 44% y/y to 1.75% of GDP in Jan–May, but the National Bank warns inflation (9.7%) and debt above 60% this year could still hurt the credit rating unless parties lock in a cross-government pact on deficit, inflation and growth. EU Funds & Budget Credibility: Romania drew a record €10bn in European money over the last year and is pushing NRRP uptake, while analysts say the deficit trend is a “breath of fresh air” ahead of talks with Moody’s and Fitch—yet political instability could still derail the full-year target. Labour Market Rules: Only 40% of job vacancies show salary info two weeks after the EU-driven transparency law took effect, with employers still adapting. Erasmus+ Crackdown: EPPO filed an indictment against the president and vice-president of a Romanian association over alleged Erasmus+ fraud, including false documentation and inflated costs. Defence Procurement: Romania signed a €2bn deal for first SHORAD/VSHORAD air-defence systems with Rafael, aiming to counter drones and low-altitude threats. Energy Storage Push: MetaWealth plans a €22m BESS build in Neamț County for 130 MWh capacity by end-2026. Real Estate & Capital Markets: North Bucharest Investments won “Investment Champion of the Year,” while a Romanian-French consortium launched a €37m VC fund for West-region tech and startups. EU Tax Proposal: The Commission is preparing an assessment of a possible EU-wide 1% online gambling tax, backed by Romanian MEP Victor Negrescu.

Political Crisis & EU Funding: Romania’s political deadlock is deepening as lawmakers reject a new government, raising constitutional concerns and putting the country’s ability to secure around €11bn in EU funding by end-August under pressure. Banking Outlook: The EIB says credit demand in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe should stay strong, with Romania seen among the higher-potential markets. FDI & Investment Climate: EY reports Romania’s FDI rebounded to €8.1bn in 2025, with more announced projects and jobs, but investors remain selective and depend on predictability. Energy & Renewables: ENGIE started its first European hybrid energy plant in Romania, while solar and wind financing continues to move forward, including new project finance for Romanian PV portfolios. Business Diplomacy: Bucharest Chamber of Commerce and Industry opened a representation office in New Delhi and held a Romania–Japan business meeting to spur trade and investment. Tech & Patents: OXT Technologies secured a European unitary patent covering sustainable aviation fuel production via mixed alcohols. EU Rules Watch: Eight EU states, including Romania, asked the Commission for clearer packaging rules implementation ahead of the 12 August 2026 deadline.

Tech & Jobs: Oracle has started cutting about 500 Romanian roles as part of its global cloud and AI restructuring, following a previous round of cuts in late 2025 that already hit roughly 400 local jobs. Telecom & Payments: Digi Romania integrated the national RoPay system into its billing via ING Bank and Transfond, enabling instant bill payments through banking apps. Connectivity: Romania’s 5G connections jumped 45% in 2025, while fibre grew 7%, with internet services driving 41% of telecom revenues. Energy Investment: Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners reached financial close on the Pestera II 392 MW onshore wind farm in Constanța County, with operations targeted for 2028. Cybersecurity: Ukraine’s SSU and the FBI uncovered a Russian hacking campaign targeting messaging accounts of officials and activists across Ukraine, Europe and the U.S. EU Economic Rules: The European Commission’s 2026 Convergence Report says Romania still isn’t ready to adopt the euro. Politics & Governance: PSD nominated Sorin Grindeanu for prime minister, signaling a push for a government that includes the party and focuses on economic priorities like the NRRP and deficit targets.

Government Formation: Romania’s Social Democrats (PSD) will assume governance and nominate Sorin Grindeanu as prime minister, saying they won’t back any cabinet that excludes PSD and will negotiate support with pro-Western factions focused on economic priorities like the NRRP, OECD, SAFE and deficit targets. Business Deals: theMarketer is acquiring eMAG Group’s Conectoo email marketing platform to expand its enterprise customer base across 16 countries. Energy & Finance: R.Power secured EUR 42m financing for four Romanian PV projects (55MWp) plus storage, adding to a 2GW pipeline. Power Market Sentiment: a survey shows 41.1% of Romanians report income declines over the past year and 84.5% expect prices to rise in the next six months. Trade & Investment: Romania’s Ministry of Finance says eight-country interest is building around the “Black Sea A.I. Gigafactory” project. Nuclear Ambitions: AtkinsRéalis has started U.S. licensing steps for CANDU technology, aiming to serve rising U.S. electricity demand. Regional Energy Links: Srbijagas says a Russia gas contract extension is tied to completing interconnections with Romania and North Macedonia to avoid higher prices.

Black Sea AI Gigafactory: Companies from Europe, North America, the Middle East and Asia are showing interest in Romania’s “Black Sea A.I. Gigafactory”, a Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Energy-backed digital infrastructure push. Trade & Investment: CCIR renewed its partnership with the Shanghai International Chamber of Commerce via a new MoU aimed at deepening trade and investment cooperation. Banking Profitability: Romania’s credit institutions posted aggregate net profit of about 15.5 bln RON in 2025, as consolidation and efficiency gains continued. EU Budget Push: Romania’s Economic and Social Council says the next EU Multiannual Financial Framework should boost competitiveness, cohesion and help the labour market adapt. Competition Watch: The Competition Council cleared Paval Holding’s acquisition of Carrefour Romania group. Tech & Growth: Super will acquire Cluj-based Crafting Technologies to launch its first Romanian tech hub. Insolvency Pressure: Insolvencies are rising, and liquidity tests are getting tougher, with analysts pointing to a more demanding market rather than a blanket crisis. PNRR Update: Romania approved a final PNRR revision, cutting the loan component by EUR 1.2 bln to bring the total EU allocation to EUR 20.2 bln. NATO Cybersecurity Contracts: BlueSpace Technology signed EUR 19 mln contracts with NATO for TEMPEST equipment supply. Ports & Trade Logistics: Comvex expanded the grain terminal at Constanța with five new storage cells, adding 28,000 tons of capacity. Media Distribution: Canal+ struck a deal with Amazon Fire TV to expand app distribution across multiple European markets, including Romania.